Did I miss something?

I’m coming to you bleary-eyed and happy from our nation’s capital! Thank you to the readers who reached out throughout the campaign, wondering why I had gone quiet all of a sudden. There are times to do politics and times to talk about politics, and you don’t get to do both at the same time. I spent the campaign stationed at Carney HQ alongside a brilliant polling and data team. It was a lot of fun. I also spent E-Day pulling votes in Poilievre’s riding, and that was, in retrospect, a lot of a lot of fun. 

I’m incredibly proud to have worked on this campaign and will have more to say about it in the coming days. I’m also feeling a bit nostalgic. If you’re a newer reader, you might not know that my first article (and first publicly published poll under my own banner) was dedicated to unpacking the riskiness of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. In that study, which coincidentally was launched on April 28, 2024, I unpacked impressions of Justin Trudeau and explored the potential upside of alternative candidates. I found that Canadians would be quite interested in a Liberal leader with stronger economic chops who had spent their professional life outside of politics. The poll also found Carney as a potential front-runner. 

In my humble view, I think that piece, along with my conversation with David Herle on the Herle Burly was a critical step in validating what many Liberals and political observers intuitively knew to be true - we couldn’t win with Justin Trudeau at the helm. 

Throughout the year, I continued to explore ways to start chipping away at Poilievre’s massive lead in the polls. In December, I wrote about Poilievre’s Slippery Path on Trump, Trade, and Tariffs, which found that Canadians were evenly divided on Poilievre’s motivations when it comes to dealing with Trump. 38% of Canadians felt that Poilievre cared more about Canada winning, and an equal portion felt like he cared more about Trudeau losing (24% were uncertain either way). Given Trudeau’s extreme unpopularity, it was rare to find footholds anywhere in the opinion landscape. But this study found one. 

On January 22, I wrote about the emergence of “political gold” for the Liberal Party (albeit a pile of shit for the country): Trump’s threats against Canada and Poilievre’s inability to pivot. I advised that “Trump has brought the kindling. It’s time to strike a match.” Well, as we look at a fourth Liberal term and a Prime Minister Mark Carney - kaboom. 

Too often, we assess pollsters on one metric: the accuracy of their horse race numbers. This is, of course, extremely important, but so is asking the right questions. I’m proud to have produced some creative, strategic, and, above all else, honest polling and political analysis throughout the past year. I look forward to providing some additional layers to how we understand this historic campaign in the coming days.  

Also, I’ll be joining some great pollsters at the Empire Club on May 6 to discuss what just happened. If you’re in Toronto, join us!