Don’t gaslight yourself: this is political gold

One of the consequences of Donald Trump’s electoral success is the rattling of the left – not just in America but here as well. We look at his successful buffoonery and don’t know what to do with it. His flaws appear so obvious, and his strengths a farce. And then Democrats lose and we question if we have ever truly known anything about politics or what the public wants. The doubt and hesitation set in. 

But I’m here to tell you: Trump has brought the kindling. It’s time to strike a match. 

Donald Trump presents a picture-perfect wedge. In case you’re unfamiliar, this is a political issue that effectively divides - or wedges - a party’s support base. The best wedge issues are when nearly all of your voters agree with you, but your opposition is split, causing leadership to squirm. 

Trump is an overwhelmingly unpopular figure in Canada. 6 in 10 Canadians have an unfavourable view of him, almost half of whom have a very unfavourable impression. Conversely, just 10% of Canadians have a very favourable impression of Trump. FWIW, the most recent Harvard/Harris poll has Trump’s favorability at 51:43 in the US, including 29% who have a very favorable (without a u for my American friends) view of him. In case it was in doubt, we are not America. 

If you look at Conservative voters, that’s where you’ll see the good stuff. CPC voters are almost evenly divided on Trump, and more of their voters have a very unfavourable than very favourable impression of the President. It’s the Conservative base - those who are certain to vote Conservative - that are most enthusiastic about Trump. But even there: division. 

You might be thinking: OK, Canadians hate Trump. He’s not running in this country. You would be correct. And I’ve been very clear that I don’t support a Poilievre = Trump strategy. But in inserting himself into our economy, Trump has made himself central to our politics. It’s now a very real possibility that the ballot question for the next federal election will be: who is best suited to handle Trump? Voters need to doubt that that person could be Poilievre. 

When I conducted message testing on Poilievre in the fall, I tested a statement called “The American”. It reads: 

At the time, this message was tied as a top performer, but I’ll admit, it wasn’t my favourite. I felt like… so what? The top issue is the cost of living and Kamala Harris could be the next President anyway (weep). But the Canada/US dynamic has radically changed, and Canadians are taking it seriously. In my recent polling, I found: 

• 49% of Canadians think Trump is serious about wanting to make Canada part of the US, 28% think he’s joking, and 23% aren’t sure. 

• 67% think Canada should take Trump’s threats to use economic force to make Canada part of the US “extremely seriously” or “somewhat seriously”. 

Since my September polling, there has been a 7-point increase in the percentage of Canadians that say Poilievre and Trump’s values and vision are similar (52% Jan 10-12, 45% Sep 12-16). Just 12% reject that there is any similarity at all. Movement is good, but the job is far from done. It’s time to connect some dots for people. Poilievre needs to be confronted with some uncomfortable questions about Trump and Trumpism. For example, this. We need to update “The American”.

Like their complaints about calls for strategic voting, I can already hear the Conservatives scoff at the left playing the “anti-American” card. Well, there’s a reason these cards get played. They can work. I emphasize the “can”, because there has to be a credible risk, such as Free Trade, Iraq, and our current MAGA invasion. There have certainly been times when this has fallen flat, but I’m very confident (95/100) that this isn’t one of those moments.