Greetings from the great state of Canada! As promised, I’m following up with a more fulsome look at Canadians’ attitudes towards our current tariff woes. 

I really think that the organizing attitude in Canadian politics right now is Trudeau fatigue (and when thinking globally, it’s disgust with Trump.) Because Trudeau is so unpopular, Conservative support is artificially high. Poilievre is capturing support from people who aren’t typical Conservative voters by seeming like the best/only alternative. His obscenely high and consistent 40-some percent in the polls makes it seem like Poilievre can make no strategic missteps. But I think he is in this moment. 

There are no heroes here. 

Over the past few days, there have been a bunch of polls (mine included) showing that Donald Trump is more popular than Justin Trudeau among Canadians - a mind-boggling change of events vs. the last Trump presidency. I think it’s more correct to say that more people hate Trump intensely than they do Trudeau, but more people have an unfavourable view of Trudeau overall. It’s not that Trump has found some great popularity in Canada. Both leaders are overwhelmingly unpopular (1 in 3 Canadians have an unfavourable view of both of them).

This leaves Pierre Poilievre looking good by comparison, but as has always been the case, he’s a polarizing figure. He is simply more favourably viewed than Trudeau, which makes his shortfalls less salient. However, the data in the article presents some opportunities. 

The stakes are extremely high. 

This may be self-evident, but Canadians are taking the election of Donald Trump and his proposed tariffs extremely seriously. Nearly 3 in 4 Canadians have been following news stories about Trump’s tariff threats very (23%) or somewhat (50%) closely. This includes stories about:  

• Trudeau’s trip to Mar-a-Lago (77% have heard at least something about this);

• Ford’s comments that Trump’s tariffs are like “a family member stabbing you in the heart”(60%, 64% in Ontario);

• Ford’s comments that Canada should cut ties with Mexico in negotiations with Trump (55%, 57% in Ontario); and

• Pierre Poilievre discussing actions Canada should take to prevent Trump’s tariffs (60%).

6 in 10 Canadians think, “There's a very real risk that Trump could put in place the tariffs,” compared to just 27% who believe “Trump is just threatening tariffs as a negotiation tactic,” and 14% aren’t sure. 

If Trump’s tariffs are put in place, 28% expect Canada’s economy will fall into a depression, and 55% think we’ll have a recession. 73% expect to personally be impacted by Trump’s tariffs, and 67% of working Canadians expect their sector to be impacted. 

The vast majority of Canadians think Trump is full of shit. 

Canadians are taking offense to Trump’s tariff threats on several fronts. Firstly, 65% of Canadians believe Trump is being “irrational” and that  “he doesn't understand how tariffs work and the harm it will cause the US and global economies”. Conversely, 35% believe he’s being “rational” and “acting in the best interest of the United States to help their economy.”

Trump has given many justifications as to why tariffs are needed. The original reasoning was to stop the "invasion" of drugs and Illegal Aliens" into the U.S., a story Poilievre has been only too happy to embrace with his comments that Trudeau “has lost control of everything. He's lost control of the borders, lost control of immigration." However, given how Canadians view Trump and the border, I think it's a mistake for Poilievre to appear to be in unquestioning agreement. 

Canadians, including Conservative voters, tend to think we are the victims of the border. They’re more likely to think drugs, illegal migrants, and terrorists are coming into Canada than to believe they’re flowing in the opposite direction. 

This doesn’t mean that Canadians think the status quo is OK. But they think the US is the problem that needs protecting against, not us. 

To the Trudeau team’s credit, I think they’ve been somewhat able to tie Poilievre’s agreement with Trump as being toxically partisan. As mentioned in my last newsletter, Canadians are evenly divided in their perceptions of Poilievre’s motivations when it comes to negotiations with Trump. Half of those with an opinion think he cares more about Trudeau losing, and half think he cares more about Canada winning. 

Some Canadians, particularly Conservative voters, have high hopes for Poilievre’s ability to negotiate with Trump. Nearly half agree that as a Conservative, Poilievre is better positioned to negotiate with the Trump administration. An equal portion thinks he would be good at negotiating with Trump due to his toughness. 

Somewhat fewer, although strong majorities of non-conservative voters, think Poilievre is a hot-head and is likely to blow up negotiations with someone like Trump and that Poilievre doesn’t know how to work with people who don’t agree with him — something that’s needed at this moment.

Canadians, regardless of party, want their politicians to work together.

3 in 4 want a “Team Canada” approach to negotiating with the Trump administration, with all parties and provincial governments working together. Fewer than half want each province to simply look out for itself. And 70% want Trudeau and Poilieve to work together to get a good deal for Canada. 

I think there’s something to Poilievre being a one-trick pony. Canadians know him as tough, but does he have another mode? Sometimes it’s necessary. In my last article, I showed that 39% of Canadians thought Trudeau going to Mar-a-Lago was an example of Trudeau putting Canada first, even if it means playing to Trump’s ego. This is more credit than Trudeau typically gets, and surely, it is something Canadians think is part of working with Trump.

All roads circle back to the public’s perception of Trudeau.

When asked, “If they’re not working well together, who is at fault?” 33% choose Trudeau, 16% Poilievre, and 50% say both equally. 

And even though they tend to dislike Trump, loathe his tariff threats, and reject his rationale for them, Canadians tend to blame Trudeau. 2 in 3 believe his government was unprepared for a second Trump term. 57% believe we’re in a trade war because Trudeau didn’t take issues at the border seriously. In a nod to how erratic Canadians think Trump is, 50% agree there’s nothing Trudeau could have done to prevent Trump from threatening tariffs on Canada, but fewer (38%) think the government is well-positioning to deal with Trump since they handled his administration last time. 

Where does this net out? 

I don’t see a ton of hope in this data for rehabbing Trudeau’s image, but I do see a path to muddying Poilievre’s. 

My article on rebranding Poilievre provides some additional useful context. In particular, Poilievre’s weakest brand attributes are empathy, collaboration, honesty, and respect. The trade issue provides an opportunity to ratchet up the importance of these qualities. Can he work together? Can he put Canadians’ interests above his own? Can he overcome his disdain for Trudeau to get things done? 

In the rebranding article, the narrative frame that tested best is The Blowhard: 

We all know that guy - the one who speaks loudly but never listens. Pierre Poilievre may sound like he has great plans for the country, but if you pay attention, his plans don’t make any sense. How are Canadians supposed to be better off if he’s cutting the programs we rely on most? We need to take another look at this guy. 

In this context, this frame would be something more like: 

We all know that guy - the one who speaks loudly but never listens. Poilievre is more interested in winning an argument than winning for Canadians. In times like these, Canadians expect more from their politicians. They expect them to work together to get results. This is something Poilievre simply can’t or won’t do. We need to take another look at this guy. 

What this framing is: 

• That he is immature and self-serving. 

• That he’s sacrificing the interests of Canadians for his own desire to win politically. 

• About results for Canadians. 

What the framing isn’t: 

• That he won’t take on Trump because he’s a conservative/Canada’s Trump. 

• That he isn’t tough enough to take on Trump. 

• About a fight with Trudeau.

Methodology

This survey was conducted online in English and French from December 5-7, 2024. A nationally representative sample of n=1270 Canadians completed the survey. The data was weighted to census parameters for region, gender, age, education, and past voting behaviour. For a representative sample, the margin of error would be +/-3%.