Provincial update

Alright, Ontario. We’re on Day 6, 23 more to go. I’m bringing you my first set of data that was fielded exclusively after Trump’s tariff bomb. Did it shake up the Ontario campaign? Ish. 

The vote is statistically unchanged. The PCs are at 49%, OLP at 25%, NDP at 17%, and Greens at 10%. 

The one thing that has changed a bit is the issue set. In the wake of Trump’s Saturday announcement, the percentage of Ontarians choosing “dealing with Trump” as the issue most important to their vote has increased by 8 points, making it the second most resonant issue, ahead of healthcare. The cost of living remains the #1 issue. 

Trump & the LPC leadership race

I observed this tension between the longstanding problem of the cost of living and our new crisis, Trump, in early January. In normal times, this would still be pretty fresh data, but January was 1000 years long, and clearly, Trump has the power to shake things up. So, I’m sure there’s been some movement, but given the Ontario data, I don’t expect the primacy of the cost of living to have changed.

But let me take a step back. Respondents were asked which issues are most important to their vote from a comprehensive list. 78% of voters selected the cost of living as one of their most important issues. This is the top issue for voters from every single party. 

At that time, managing the Canada-US relationship was more of a middling priority, after healthcare, housing affordability, jobs and the economy, and reducing taxes. 

While managing the Canada-US relationship wasn’t the top issue, it was extremely important to the LPC leadership race. 75% of voters from the Liberal vote pool—those who would consider voting for the Liberals under the next leader—said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the new leader can stand up to Trump. A similar portion said the same of someone who can negotiate with Trump. This was far and away the most important characteristic tested. 

To me, this means that Liberals need to focus on the issue right in front of them. The issue with Trump is deeply emotional and top of mind. It’s also a great wedge issue with the Conservatives. But the cost of living is the anchor. It is the very real problem Canadians deal with every single day, and it will remain the top problem when/if we ever get past this Trump nonsense. 

I’ll catch you again tomorrow!