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- Relay Person of the Year!
This morning, Time Magazine announced Donald Trump as the 2024 Person of the Year. Going from Taylor Swift (my queen) in 2023 to Trump truly is the America I understand it to be.
So, for the first year ever (because it’s also my first year publishing), I’m excited to announce the Relay with Kyla Ronellenfitsch person of the year - the male ego.
OK, OK, as someone who tries to understand diverse perspectives and have nuanced interpretations, especially when it comes to gender, I’ll be more specific. The male politician’s ego. More specific still? Fine. The egos of Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau.
In my post-election analysis, I wrote about Biden’s failings, so I won’t beat a dead horse. But his decision to stay in the race while facing a net-negative 18-20 point approval rating and while Trump was forecast to win 400 electoral votes was politically criminal. It’s something Americans will be paying for for the next 4 years.
In polling and in politics, we’re always looking for people with soft opinions and who are, therefore, persuadable. When I was learning to conduct public opinion research, it was drilled into my head that people are experts in their own lives. They don’t walk around with fully formed and coherent opinions on every issue. It’s our job to provide information that’s salient and makes them either form or reshape their opinions.
But sometimes, we encounter a brick wall. These are the instances when people know what they think, and they won’t accept new information. It’s really annoying. For example:
- In a poll I fielded in September, 64% of voters said they already have enough information to know how they'll vote federally.
- In that same poll, 60% said they would certainly not vote for Trudeau, statistically unchanged since May (62%).
- 2 in 3 Canadians think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
- 44% of Canadians have a “very unfavourable” opinion of Justin Trudeau, and a further 16% have a “somewhat unfavourable” opinion of him.
- As a point of contrast, 48% have a “very unfavourable” view of Donald Trump.
I really only see one brick wall in our federal politics. When it comes to impressions of Poilievre or the other party leaders, opinions are much less firm. There’s space for positive or negative persuasion. This fluidity of opinion also exists around policy solutions.
If this was Aaron Sorkin’s world, Trudeau’s conviction that he can pull off the next election would be admirable, and he would ultimately be rewarded for it. In our world, he’ll be electorally punished. Staying in the face of this degree of opposition isn’t admirable. It’s hubris.
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