Good morning and (please, please, please) happy US election day. For the past three years, I’ve split my time between my polling firm, Relay Strategies, and US Democratic polling firm, Change Research. It’s been a joy working with this brilliant team fighting tirelessly to (re)create an America I know most Canadians want to believe in. 

While at Change, I’ve spent a lot of time studying the attitudes of young Americans, especially young men. Below I’ve reshared an article I wrote for Change Research’s substack, Touch Grass, about what the media is getting wrong about the supposed rightward shift of young American men. It’s some of the most fun data I’ve looked at in a while.

Young Canadian Men Shifting Hard to the Conservatives 

In some ways, the conversation about young men shifting to the right is even more relevant in Canada than it is in the United States. In my last public poll, which admittedly is starting to get a little old, I found that self-reported conservatism is highest among men aged 18-34 (44% conservative or libertarian). As is the case in the US, there is a massive gender gap within this age cohort. 28% of young women consider themselves conservative or libertarian, while 35% are liberal or progressive. Young women are also more than twice as likely as men to be unsure how to define their political views. 

This pattern is repeated in vote intention. At the time of polling, nearly half of men aged 18-34 planned to vote Conservative. Support for the People’s Party (7%) is also highest among young men. The Conservatives lead among young women, but they’re polling 20-pts lower than among young men. The NDP is polling second among young women, well ahead of the Liberals. 

My next public poll will focus further on this gender divide. If there’s anything you want me to dig into, let me know in the comments below! And if you haven’t already, be sure to subscribe. 

American Analysis: Not all (Young) Men

In this election cycle, the media has given a lot of attention to the idea of a large rightward political shift among young men. There’s been growing concern of young men becoming “MAGA-fied,” and young voters turning right. More recently, The Daily podcast focused on the concept of “The Gender Election.” They deep-dived into the divergent attitudes of young men and women in the U.S. Their central thesis is that this divide started a long time ago in the ways that young men and women are socialized in school. They compared the experiences of striving young women who plan to vote for Kamala Harris and young men who struggled in school who are now blue-collar workers, supporting Donald Trump. These young men spoke of their desire to be providers for their future families and their struggle to envision a future where that dream could be realized in this economy. The Daily presented a good, but partial story. In focusing so much on the perspectives of young Trump voters, the media often overstates how conservative this generation of men is. 

Ideology 

When trying to understand the ideological leanings of young men, often the point of comparison is young women. There is good reason for this, as it’s important to understand intra-generational differences. But, in using young women as the baseline, we are missing that it is actually young women’s political views that are bucking historical trends. Young women may be the most progressive generation of voters in America’s history – 51% consider themselves to be liberal or progressive, which is sixteen points higher than women aged 35-49.  

Young men’s attitudes, by contrast, are not so different from older generations of men. While opinion is polarized, our recent polling shows that young men are the most left-leaning generation of men today (just 26% of men aged 35-49 and 22% of men aged 50+ are liberal or progressive). They are more likely to be liberal or progressive than conservative (40% are liberal/progressive, 30% conservative). 

What is an Ideal Man or Woman?

To young Republican men, the top attributes of an ideal man are having a close relationship with his family, having a work-life balance, working out, having children, and working with his hands. These are also among the top attributes of the ideal woman, besides working with their hands. Being a good cook is also perceived as being one of the most important attributes of an ideal woman.

Just 2% of young Republican men consider “making a lot of money” one of the most important attributes for women, while 23% see making a lot of money as an important attribute for men. Only 3% of Republican men think “paying attention to politics” is among the top lifestyle attributes for women, while 15% think it’s an important attribute for men; both numbers are far lower than for their Democratic counterparts. 

Young Democratic men hold similar standards for both men and women. The top desired traits for both genders are having a work-life balance, having a close relationship with family, having an active social life, volunteering to make the world a better place, and paying attention to politics. Going to therapy is ranked slightly higher than working out. For Republican men, going to therapy is the lowest-ranked ideal of all tested. Young Democratic men view being a good cook, having children, and working with their hands as far lower in importance than Republican men do.  

Gender Norms, “Toxic Masculinity,” and Problems Facing the Next Generation

In this election cycle, gender norms have been a central issue. Republicans have used inflammatory language about trans children. There have been several comments about women who don’t have children, a conversation initiated by J.D. Vance and continued on by Sara Huckabee Sanders who said that Harris “doesn’t have anything keeping her humble,” because she doesn’t have biological children. Harris replied, “[there are] a whole lot of women out here…not aspiring to be humble.” 

As a multiracial woman candidate, Harris has been faced with a unique experience. Tennessee Congressman Timothy Burchett referred to Harris as a “DEI Vice President.” He implied that because she is a woman of color chosen for such a high office, she is just another example of the kind of “mediocrity” that you get when you make a “DEI hire.” 

Nearly all young men (94%) have heard of the term “toxic masculinity”. Young Democratic men are most likely to believe that framing a conversation with the term toxic masculinity is “Helpful because it raises awareness of the harmful ways that men and boys are raised” (58%). Just 6% believe this framing is “harmful because it stereotypes and discriminates against men and boys”, and 34% fall “Somewhere in between. It's good to challenge men and boys to do better but sometimes the conversation goes too far.” Attitudes among young Republican men are completely flipped: 69% think that framing conversations in these ways harm boys, 5% think it is helpful, and 22% fall somewhere in between. 

These men differ dramatically on the perceived problems facing young boys and men today. To young Democratic men, top problems include men not learning how to express their emotions, poor mental health, online misinformation, and political extremism. 

To young Republican men, top problems include boys and men being raised too soft, social media, poor mental health, online misinformation, social isolation, gender discrimination, and “they’re being brainwashed”. 

The gaps between young Democratic and Republican men are most pronounced on: 

• Not learning how to express their emotions (higher for Democrats)

• Becoming politically extreme (higher for Democrats)

• Not raised to be equal romantic partners (higher for Democrats)

• Raised to be tough (higher for Democrats)

• Gender discrimination (higher for Republicans)

• Raised to be soft (higher for Republicans)

Young Democratic and Republican men also hold very different diagnoses of what problems are facing girls and young women today. Young Democratic men are most likely to see women facing gender discrimination, too high expectations to be physically attractive, poor mental health, online misinformation, and living in a violent world as problems. 

Young Republican men are most likely to believe social media is the biggest problem facing young women. The second greatest perceived problem is the belief that young women are being brainwashed, followed by too high expectations to be physically attractive, poor mental health, and living in a violent world. 

Notably, young Republican men think men are more likely than women to face gender discrimination (+39), social isolation (+24), and too high expectations to be financially successful (+15). They’re also more likely to believe women are being faced with becoming politically extreme (+27), not being raised to be equal romantic partners (+24), being brainwashed (+19), and online misinformation (+10%). 

Conversely, Democratic men believe men are much more likely than women to see challenges with men not learning how to express their emotions (+71), becoming politically extreme (+57), being raised to be tough (+36), social isolation (+31), being brainwashed (+28), too high expectations to be financially successful (+20), and not being raised to be equal romantic partners (+20). They are vastly more likely to believe women face more gender discrimination than men (+65). 

Summary 

Generational changes are taking place, and neither young men nor women are a monolith. While there are certainly young men with far-right political views, young men are more likely to be liberal or progressive than conservative. In ignoring the attitudes of young left-leaning men, we miss that this group is nearly in step with the attitudes of their women counterparts. 

Methodology 

Using a mixture of Dynamic Online Sampling and text-to-web, Change Research surveyed n=3275 LIkely Voters nationally, which included a subsample of n=708 men aged 18-34 from October 3-9, 2024. The Modeled Margin of Error for this group of young men is +/-4%. The margin of error is higher for Democratic young men and Republican young men (+/-8% for each). The full methodology statement and toplines can be found here.