I interrupt your shoveling to bring you a teaser of how Canadians are feeling about our Trumpian tariff troubles. The full results will come out early this week. I’m still digging through the data, but let me tell you, it’s a fun one! The survey results are full of contradictions as many Canadians contend with two impulses: they dislike Justin Trudeau (61% unfavourable). They also dislike Donald Trump (58% unfavourable). 

A few things I’m learning: 

There’s no evidence that recent events (the trade war or affordability announcements) have improved Trudeau’s fortunes. 

If an election were held today, 44% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, 21% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, 8% for the Bloc, 5% for the Greens, and 4% would vote for the People’s Party. Beyond the vote, underlying metrics are stable. Trudeau’s favourables are unchanged as compared to September, and 2 in 3 Canadians continue to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. 

Despite their negative impression of Trudeau, Canadians are split on his trip to Mar-A-Lago. 

In today’s political environment, a split is good for Trudeau. Just over 3 in 4 Canadians have heard at least something about Trudeau’s trip to Mar-a-Lago. 39% believe the trip showed Trudeau putting Canada first, even if it means playing to Trump’s ego. An equal portion believes it’s an example of Trudeau being weak and that it put Canada back in negotiations, while 22% are unsure. 

There are significant risks for Poilievre as he tries to walk the line between Canadians’ hatred of Trump and of Trudeau. 

When it comes to negotiations with Trump, Canadians are split on whether Poilievre cares more about Canada winning or about Trudeau losing. While 2 in 3 of Poilievre’s current voters believe the best of his intentions, sizable portions believe he’s more motivated by Trudeau losing (18%) or they’re simply unsure (15%). LPC, NDP, BQ, and undecided voters tend to think Poilievre is motivated by his opponent's political downfall. 

This isn’t simply a predictable partisan divide. In Ontario, 30% of voters think Ford is mostly motivated by Trudeau losing - 8 points lower than believe the same of Poilievre. 

There has been some movement in the public’s mind when it comes to Trump/Poilievre comparisons. 

Since September, there has been a 10-point increase in the percentage of Canadians who believe Trump and Poilievre are similar. There has also been a 10-point decline in the percentage of Canadians who dismiss the two as being “totally different.” Over the same time period, Poilievre’s favourables have been unchanged. But maybe it’s the start of some underlier movement? 

Now, back to your Sunday-ing! Full results will be out early this week. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss it! 

Methodology

This survey was conducted online in English and French from December 5-7, 2024. A nationally representative sample of n=1270 Canadians completed the survey. The data was weighted to census parameters for region, gender, age, education, and past voting behaviour. For a representative sample, the margin of error would be +/-3%.