No pressure, we just need the debate to get us 10 points

Alright, Ontario, we’re on day 19, TEN more to go. We’ve arrived at the one anticipated moment of the campaign where things could be shaken up: the debate. Get ready for an epic Ford pile-on.

Both the Liberals and NDP are at their campaign peak. The OLP is at 26%, and the NDP is at 20%. Ford and the PCs maintain their significant lead but are at a campaign low of 47%. The Greens also appear to have shed a couple of points and are at 8%. 

Tonight, I’ll be using my proprietary methodology, Text Snapshot, to assess how voters react to the debate. I’ve recruited two sets of participants: 

• Loose Progressive Conservatives: Those who currently plan to vote for Ford but say they’re only “possibly” voting for him. This group is 10% of the PC voting base and are the people who are most chip-away-able. 

• Swing Left: Those who are certain not to vote for Ford but are open to both the Liberals and NDP. This group represents about 20% of the total population and will decide which party is the official opposition (pending some astronomical event that defeats Ford). 

Participants will text us 👍👎 emojis when they like or dislike what they’re seeing. The data will then be aggregated so we can understand the standout moments. After the debate, participants will be asked a few questions to determine whether the debate mattered—did it change their vote intention in any way? I used this methodology to assess the 2021 federal debate and again for the Trump/Biden matchup. If you want to be retraumatized, my analysis of the Presidential debate is here. 

Check back in tomorrow!