Tripping Over a Low Bar

As we enter the Canada Day long weekend, I have a gift! Mildly self-satisfied gawking at American politics! Last night was the first US presidential debate. Didn’t watch it? No matter! I’m here to give you the moment-by-moment breakdown (literally) of what happened. 

Candidate debates are undeniably one of the campaign milestones where things can shift. In our ultra-fragmented news media, they manage to attract a big audience, either in full or in part. Campaigns invest a lot of valuable time preparing their candidate, knowing that the stakes are huge. 

They also invest research dollars to inform their spin machine. There is always a gap between how partisans, including campaign strategists, and actual voters perceive the debate. Traditionally, campaigns have relied on “dial testing” - a vintage technology you’ve likely seen on CNN, where focus group participants indicate how they’re feeling at each second of the debate using a handheld device. At the end, you have a complete understanding of which moments helped and hurt your candidate. Your team can then clip the good moments to post on social media and center those exchanges in post-debate interviews. 

Last night, I conducted a modern-day dial test. Using my “Text Snapshot” methodology, I recruited 47 modeled “Double Haters” - those who have an unfavorable impression of both Trump and Biden - to text me their opinions throughout the debate. This group represents about 20% of the population, skews young, and is very third-party-candidate-curious. They’re a prime persuasion target for this cycle. Participants were asked a series of questions before and after the debate. They were also asked to text a 👍 or 👎 emoji every time they liked or disliked what they were seeing. This is also the methodology I used for the 2021 Leaders Debates on behalf of the Liberal Party. 

Expectation, Meet Reality 

To start, participants were asked how they expected each Donald Trump and Joe Biden to perform in the debate, and who they thought would ultimately win. For Biden, the expectations were very low, given his age and perceived performance at recent public appearances. At the same time, participants thought that he would show up prepared and practiced. 

Low expectations leading up to a debate are generally a good thing. Just ask 2015 Justin Trudeau. As pundits like to say, if the candidate shows up with their pants on, it’ll be viewed as a victory. So leading up to this debate, I personally, was a little bit hopeful for Joe Biden. I figured - he’s been a decent debater in the past, as long as he’s half-coherent, he’ll be good. Well… 

The worst of participants’ expectations were fulfilled. At best, he was described as “adequate” or “satisfactory”. More commonly, participants commented on him struggling to get his point across, and that he seemed old and frail. 

Participants expected Donald Trump to be, well, Donald Trump. They thought he would be energetic, aggressive, entertaining, and flexible with the truth. 

Much of the post-debate media coverage has centered on how poorly Biden performed. Fair enough. But that’s not the whole story. As one participant said, Donald Trump “did well for Trump.” Even if his stage presence was good in comparison to Joe Biden’s, it doesn’t change what he says or what he represents. The debate was a good reminder of that. Participants described him as “slimy,” “lying,” and “random.” While President Biden was viewed as losing his train of thought at times, President Trump was also described as being off on his own tangents and not answering the questions. 

The High(ish) Points 

While Biden’s perceived frailty was certainly a lasting impression, the high points throughout the debate were all his. This included: 

• His rebuttal on so-called “late-term” abortions

• Discussion of January 6th and how Donald Trump refused to denounce the Proud Boys

• Highlighting Trump’s comments on Charlottesville, Hitler and arguing that Trump isn’t equipped to be President  

• Discussing his policy goals for helping childcare costs and single parents

• Calling Trump a whiner and a sore loser

The abortion discussion is the only policy issue that stood as “most memorable” to participants at the conclusion of the debate. 

The Lows 

While the peak positive moments all occurred while President Biden was speaking, nearly all of the most negative moments were because of Trump. Many of these were when he was bragging about his record, whether that be on veterans, cutting taxes, or on immigration. 

• Donald Trump talking about his record with veterans and that Joe Biden doesn't care about veterans/Biden doesn't like the military

• Donald Trump accusing Biden of going after his political opponents. Trump talking about Pelosi and responsibility for Jan 6.

• Trump claiming to have the "biggest heart on stage" 

• Trump discussing his tax cuts and Biden’s desire to overturn them. 

Other than abortion, and President Biden freezing, off-color comments, personal attacks, and the weird golf exchange were most memorable to participants. 

Does any of this matter? 

Yes and no. For the most part, participants said the debate didn’t change their intended vote choice, or that it reinforced how they were already planning to vote. But for many, this is their choice to vote for a third party candidate, or write-in their ballot out of protest. 

More than anything, the wasted opportunity for Biden is enormous. Motivation to vote is already down. No one is talking about what he’s done as President (aside from management of the Israel-Hamas war). His age and health have been a focal point for months and after last night, that’s not going to change.

What’s the solution? Idk, listen to Ezra Klein and pray.  

Methodology

This research was conducted among respondents that our model indicated were likely to be  “Double Haters,”those who have an unfavorable impression of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. This group makes up roughly 20% of the electorate and is a critical persuasion target this cycle. 

While this group has an unfavorable impression of both Trump and Biden, this doesn’t mean that they’re equally likely to vote for each candidate. A recent survey found that just over 1 in 4 currently plan to vote for President Biden, while only 4% plan to vote for Donald Trump. Rather, this group is vulnerable to a third party threat: 25% currently plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 31% say they won’t vote for any of these candidates. Another 13% aren’t sure who they’ll vote for. 

This group skews young, and is more likely to consist of people of color versus the rest of the population. 

For this research, we focused on “Double Haters” residing in swing states (PA, AZ, NV, MI, WI, GA). Similar to the distribution among the general population, participants tended to be younger than 35 (as you’ll notice in their very colorful language!). 

47 modeled likely “Double Haters” participated in these “Text Snapshot” interviews. Participants were asked three questions prior to the debate: 

• Who do you think will win the debate? 

• How do you expect Joe Biden to perform? 

• How do you expect Donald Trump to perform? 

Throughout the debate, participants were asked to send a 👍 or 👎 emoji whenever they liked or disliked what was happening on stage. This data was then aggregated by the minute, allowing us to understand precisely which moments in the debate stood out most to participants. 

After the debate, participants were asked: 

• Who do you think won the debate? Why do you think that?

• Overall, how would you describe Joe Biden’s performance?

• How would you describe Donald Trump’s performance?

• What do you think was the most memorable moment of the debate? How come?

• Has the debate had any impact on how you think you’ll vote in November? In what way?

• If you weren't being paid to watch tonight, at what point do you think you would have turned the debate off?

Collectively, this study allows us to understand what the expectations were leading into the debate, and which moments resonated most with actual voters, not pundits. It also allows us to understand the lasting impression of the candidates and overall debate.