An Historic F-U

Well, that was unexpected. ICYMI, Chrystia Freeland announced this morning that instead of delivering the long-awaited fall economic statement, she has resigned as Minister of Finance and from Cabinet entirely. In her resignation letter, she reveals that the Prime Minister told her Friday that he would be removing her from Finance and offering her another cabinet position. I’m a pollster, not an expert on how politicking on the hill should be conducted. But firing your Minister of Finance 2 days before she was to try to restore economic confidence feels colossally stupid and inexcusable for a government this old. But hey, that’s just me. 

What I do feel confident commenting on is the opinion environment. And if Team Trudeau is going to try to blame their electoral misfortunes on Chrystia Freeland, I call bullshit. 

Chrystia Freeland is not overwhelmingly disliked. About 1 in 3 Canadians have an unfavourable impression of her, and her “very unfavourables” have actually declined since the spring.  The most common perception of Freeland is… nothing. 26% of Canadians have a “neutral impression” of her, and 1 in 5 don’t know who she is at all. 

I’m not going to let her off scot-free. I personally don’t find her to be a great communicator, and economic management and messaging have certainly been the government’s greatest weakness. As Finance Minister, she bears a lot of responsibility for that. However, the fundamental weakness of this government is Justin Trudeau. 

You know what I’ll say next: Canadians tend to have an extremely negative perception of the Prime Minister. 6 in 10 have an unfavourable view of him, including 44% who have a “very unfavourable” impression. Despite their best efforts, impressions of Trudeau haven’t really changed since the spring. In my last article, I discussed the stickiness of the opinion environment. Swapping the Finance Minister isn’t going to alleviate Canadians’ fatigue with the top. 

In last week’s Curse of Politics, David Herle’s “Hey You” went out to Mélanie Joly, Mark Carney, and any other Liberal with leadership aspirations. His message was basically - there’s no way Trudeau can stay on in this opinion environment, so run! My message is: run harder. 

Most rumoured potential leadership candidates continue to be broadly unknown, which comes with both opportunity and threat. They have the space to create their own brand and vision but they’re vulnerable to being easily defined by the opposition. And as we know, the Conservatives are pretty good at that kind of thing. 

But I’ll take unknown and definable over known, defined, and disliked any day.