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A little optimism for Democrats (and the rest of the world)

Kyla Ronellenfitsch
July 22, 2024

I’m happy to, for the first time in this newsletter’s history(!!), be a purveyor of optimism!

ICYM I collected live reactions to the historically disastrous Presidential debate a few weeks ago. I recruited 47 modeled “Double Haters” - those who have an unfavorable impression of both Trump and Biden - to text me their opinions throughout the debate. This group tends to be young and progressive but disaffected with politics. They’re a critical persuasion audience for this cycle.

In a normal debate where a candidate doesn’t combust before our eyes, collecting moment-to-moment feedback is a useful way to understand what resonated most with actual voters, as opposed to the pundits and strategists who are typically bad at identifying what mattered. Truthfully, this debate didn’t really require data to understand what happened. It was a shit show.

In the wake of yesterday’s announcement that President Biden will not seek reelection, I reached out to my debate participants to see where their heads are at. Turns out, they’re hyped! Ok, hyped might be an exaggeration but the response was overwhelmingly positive.

The hope of Biden stepping down is, in part, that he persuades the narrow group of swing voters that Democrats deserve another look. But more than that, a new ticket is meant to excite voters who are susceptible to staying home or voting for a third party. This seems to be the case! Many participants reflected feeling relieved, excited, or at least curious about who the Democrats will choose. At the same time, some participants mentioned lingering anxiety given the stakes of the race.

Q: Has the debate had any impact on how you think you’ll vote in November? In what way? [asked June 27]	Q: How are you feeling about the election now that Joe Biden has announced he won't be seeking reelection? [asked July 21]
It's making me not want to vote at all, this country is cooked	Relieved. The Democratic Party is SO back
No, I'll vote against Trump no matter what.	Relief that we don't have a candidate with cognitive impairment, grateful to Biden for doing the right thing, sad for Biden and his family, and enthusiastic to move forward with Harris.
No, I still plan to vote for Biden. Going into this debate, I knew I wasn't voting for Biden for Biden. I am voting for Biden for Kamala and his team behind him. I am voting for Biden because I refuse to have a racist, sexist, felon, and all around scary person in office.	Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!! No more [not fit for print] candidate!!!
I wasn't thinking about voting at all, but I may begrudgingly vote for Biden. I don't like his stance on the wars BUT the xenophobia from Trump was concerning.	Honestly - better should the Democrats win. Kamala is at least younger and can speak coherent sentences
It makes me feel at least a little more comfortable in voting for Joe. I'm not really a fan of either candidate but I don't support anything Trump has done. Biden has at least shown me that he is at least somewhat competent for the job.	Honestly, it's what the Democrats needed in light of the resurgence Trump gained from surviving his assassination. I'm not sure if this will be enough though. I'm much more confident in voting for (I'm assuming) Kamala than Biden though but I worry she won't be able to sway enough moderates away from Trump
It hasn't changed my vote	I feel hope for the first time in years. Nervous, but oh, so happy 🥹 Really looking forward to the next debate!!!
It made me seriously consider voting Independent or for one of the other candidates. Both Trump and Biden have noticeable deficits due to age and were fairly incoherent for the whole debate.	Excited that there's room for a new candidate
No, I am still voting for Biden but certainly less enthusiastically	Feeling better about Democrats’ chances of winning
No, just because we live in a broken system. Our job is to pick the lesser of two evils because I truly feel no matter who you choose whatever was promised is rarely seen through. It's been this way for generations and generations. This debate just helps you establish which way to lean so you don't vote independent	Feeling very uncertain and scared about the outcome to be honest. Sure we've had Trump as a President already but I'd love to see what a new candidate would do for our country
It's had an impact in the sense that I'm not sure who my options are going to be when November comes around.	Hopefully, the Democrats allow for an open convention and may the best candidate win!
Yes I was definitely in the middle before but after watching the debate it has definitely swayed which side I plan to vote for	I am honestly excited to see who they will replace him with as their endorsement, but after the debate and the assassination I have been leaning towards Trump
No. I'll vote for anyone win will beat Trump.	I feel more optimistic. Polling showed he has been consistently behind Trump. Another Democrat will do better.
It has made me more confused about who to vote for.	I think it was a good idea, Biden dropping out. He would not have done well
It has. While I initially intended to vote for Biden, my impression of his ability makes me unlikely to vote for him. I hope that a new candidate takes his place	I'm confident that a new candidate would have a better chance to win the presidency
It does reinforce for me that voting for Biden is the sensible choice: an awkwardly communicated but reasonable plan to move this country forward is better to me than confident bluster without a plan.	Optimistic about the new candidate selection

This research is delivered with all the caveats:

This is qualitative research with a small group of voters. Findings can’t be generalized.
There’s likely to be a honeymoon period as voters feel the relief of Biden stepping down.
Attack ads have already started but will take some time to penetrate.

We can expect a fresh wave of polling in a couple of days. In the meantime, as someone who loathes the idea of another Trump presidency, I’ll take my hope where I can get it.

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Want to know more about this methodology?

Text Snapshot is an award-winning methodology developed by my firm, Relay Strategies. We conduct qualitative interviews via text message, allowing for a fast flexible way of understanding public opinion.

Check out the work we conducted for the Liberal Party of Canada during the 2021 Federal election. This methodology has also been adopted by US polling firm, Change Research, and is a vital tool in helping their clients fight for progress.