WTF’s a Centrist?

If you listen to today’s episode of the Herle Burly, you’ll hear me go on a potentially incoherent rant about centrism. So, let me try again. 

One of the most common responses I’ve seen to Trudeau’s resignation is - “It’s time for the Liberals to return to the centre.” OK, BUT WHAT DO YOU MEAN??? (If you don’t get the reference, let me introduce you to Hot Ones.) 

Centrism means different things to different people. There’s the version that I personally cherish as a pollster and a big-tent Liberal, and that’s developing policy based on broad appeal. It accepts that “the centre” moves over time, and the role of the party is to move along with it. It’s how we win. It’s also how you reflect the values and preferences of voters. You know, democracy. 

Then, there’s centrism as a political identity. A whopping 9% of Canadians consider themselves to be centrists. I don’t have enough data to say what policies these folks identify with most, but we often think of these people as the fabled “social progressive/fiscal conservatives.” I say fabled because David Coletto has identified that just SIX PERCENT of Canadians fit into this group based on their actual values. I encourage you to go check out his analysis (hey, who said pollsters aren’t nice to each other?). 

Too often, “centrism” is used as an unchallengeable shortcut to both policies and sentiments of the past. It means the 90s. It means austerity. It’s in harmony with big business. And it’s mild-mannered. This version of centrism fails to ask, “What do voters want and believe now?” and instead insists, “This is what voters want, always.” 

To identify the centre of today, we must understand what voters mean when they say our economy is broken. Many of the top items are perhaps unsurprising: housing is too expensive, the government spends money on the wrong things, taxes are too high, too much immigration, and Justin Trudeau. Notably, things that economists obsess over–the state of our infrastructure, low productivity, and our inability to attract foreign investment–are toward the bottom of the list. 

To an extent, the diagnosis is in the eye of the beholder. Taxes being too high, the government spending money on the wrong things, immigration, and Justin Trudeau are much more likely to be considered top problems among people who have completely written off the Liberal Party. 

Among accessible and non-accessible LPC voters alike, the cost of housing, wealth inequality, and corporations hoarding cash are viewed as top problems. For the LPC vote pool, the next top identified reasons are taxes being too high, wages too low, and global factors outside of our control. Additionally, more than half of the LPC vote pool also considers the government spending money on the wrong things, too much immigration, not taking advantage of our natural resources, and Canada/US uncertainty to be reasons for our weak economy; they're simply less likely to believe this than other voters. Notably, small minorities of accessible Liberal voters blame our economic woes on too much spending on social programs or healthcare. 

To be in the centre, in the year 2025, Liberal positioning needs to:

1. Convey a deep respect for taxpayer money. We need to be as obsessive about protecting the public purse as we are about our own. This doesn’t mean we never spend money. Most of the LPC vote pool isn’t blaming our economic misfortunes on too much spending on social programs or healthcare. They’re blaming the government for spending money on the wrong things. 

2. Reflect that our economic problems are multifaceted, but we know the path through. There’s a thin line between conveying complexity and sounding like we’re making excuses, but we have to find it. We need to have a clear plan, and all policies need to point back to it. Big problems arise when our policies feel spur of the moment and politically motivated. 

3. Be firmly on the side of the worker/consumer/voter. Concerns about wealth inequality and anti-corporate sentiment are still very much relevant and are, in fact, the norm regardless of partisanship. There’s nothing wrong with being collaborative and working with business, I think it’s what voters expect, but when push comes to shove we must always give the impression that we land on the side of the individual. 

End rant.