What’s changed when... not much has changed?

Alright, Ontario, we’re on day 26, 3 more to go. The end is near! Thank God! The PCs are at 48%, the OLP are at 28%, the NDP are at 16%, and the Greens are at 8%. 

The Liberals are the only party to have improved their standing relative to the beginning of the campaign (+3). They’ve gone from a 25-point gap with the PCs to just 20 points. Who says campaigns don’t matter? 

And while the NDP spent a good chunk of the campaign polling around 19%, they’re back to where they were at the beginning of February.

Why the extremely subtle change in the horserace?

I’ve written about this a few times, but paradoxically, the metric that has moved the most throughout the campaign is the appetite for change. At the beginning of the campaign, 69% of Ontarians agreed that it was time for a change in government. That has increased to 74%, although the proportion that strongly agrees with this idea (54%) has increased by 10 points. 

But who is meant to be that positive change? More voters have a favourable impression of each party leader, but the impact is less than dramatic. There’s been a 5-point increase in Ford’s “very favourables”. Bonnie Crombie’s total favourables have increased by 8 points, Marit Stiles’s have increased by 7, and Mike Schreiner’s have increased by 4. None of the leaders have seen all that great of an increase in their unfavourables. 

Where we do see some movement is on the issues, more specifically, who is best at managing them. The Ontario Liberals have seen growth on every single issue, to the detriment of the PCs, while the NDP has remained stagnant. However, while there has been some erosion, the PCs are still dominant on the issue that is most top of mind: dealing with Trump, and on the issue voters care about the most: the cost of living. The PCs have a significant lead, although to a lesser extent, on “helping people like you.” The PCs and OLP are now tied on healthcare and education, edging out the NDP. 

One of the things that we simply can’t overlook is how much people just really haven’t paid attention to this campaign. In my daily tracking, I ask an open-ended question, “What, if anything, have you heard about the upcoming election in Ontario?”. It’s remarkable how similar the answers are from day 1 of the campaign to yesterday. The top themes remain: 

• Ford called an early election (both neutral and negative comments) 

• Ford wants to deal with Trump/tariffs 

• Nothing

There are a few comments about the promises made by all parties, but for the most part, voters see the campaign as a simple story. It makes sense that the beginning foreshadows the end.