Election season is upon us in Ontario! In winter! My thoughts and prayers go out to all the door knockers 🙏. I suggest purchasing hand warmers in bulk. 

In even bigger news… if you’re me… I’m going to be doing a heck of a lot of polling this campaign. I’ve partnered with the Curse of Politics to bring you daily tracking from Monday to Friday. You can catch my numbers first thing in the morning on the podcast. I’ll also release daily tracking each afternoon and a deep dive on Sundays, which brings us to today! 

Disclosure

If you’ve been reading my newsletter, you know I don’t hide my partisanship. I support and have worked for the Liberal Party but I’m not assisting anyone in this campaign. 

The Ontario paradox 

If you’ve been following public polls for the last while, you know that Doug Ford has been crushing the opposition. If we ignore undecided voters — a sizable 16% of the population — 50% of Ontarians would vote for the PCs, 25% for the OLP, 17% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens. 

With that sizable lead, this election probably seems like it’s over before it has even started. That’s likely true, but it’s also true that there is a widespread appetite for change. The vast majority of Ontarians — 69% — believe it’s time for a change in government in Ontario. Just 23% disagree with this notion. Even 1 in 4 current PC voters strongly agree that it’s time for a change in government. So why aren’t they voting for one? 

An unknown opposition

To capitalize on an appetite for change, there needs to be something to change to. The reality is that voters don’t know the opposition leaders well. 40% of Ontarians have a neutral opinion of Bonnie Crombie or have never heard of her. This number rises to 52% for Marit Stiles and 61% for Mike Schreiner. Bonnie Crombie has both the highest favourables and unfavourables of the group, but none of the leaders are faced with overwhelming opposition. 

Being unknown is both an opportunity and a threat. You have the opportunity to introduce yourself to the public. The threat is… exactly what’s happening now. Voters don’t see you as an option because they don’t know anything about you. Of course, we’re in a campaign, so all eyes should be on the candidates. But, so far, that hasn’t been the case. Google Trends shows Ford dominating search. Even with the launch of the campaign, Stiles and Crombie have barely registered. 

The early call

The one thing that voters do know about the election is that Doug Ford called it early. Voters are nearly evenly divided on Ford’s reasoning for calling the election. 52% say, “Doug Ford has a good reason to call an election right now. Ontarians deserve to have a say in how we respond to Trump,” while the remaining 48% think, “There is no reason for Doug Ford to call an election right now, other than politics.” 

As of now, there is minimal electoral consequence to Ford calling an early election. More than half of Ontarians (53%) say Ford’s early election call makes no difference to their vote. While 31% say his early call makes them less likely to vote for the PCs, most of these people are already planning to vote for other parties. 2021 Justin Trudeau wishes he had this environment.

The ballot question 

Doug Ford is pushing hard for this election to be about handling Trump’s tariffs. But is that how voters see things? Not currently. 

To voters, the top issue impacting their vote is the cost of living. Healthcare and dealing with Trump are tied in second. This could certainly shift now that Trump’s tariffs have gone from a hypothetical threat to a reality. Some of the items included in the “something else” response are immigration, climate change, and homelessness. 

Regardless of what the ballot question is, Ford is well positioned. For all the issues tested, a plurality of voters think the PCs would be best at handling each. Ford’s advantage is most pronounced on dealing with Trump and the cost of living. 

If I were Bonnie Crombie, I’d look at this data and quake. She trails behind the NDP on every issue except dealing with Trump. I’d be very afraid of being edged out of the anti-Ford vote.

Ford’s election to lose 

Given where he stands in the polls and his issue advantage, this really is Ford’s election to lose. I’ll keep a close eye on how impressions of him change throughout the campaign. Currently, the stickiest negative attribute is that he only cares about helping his buddies. His top strengths are that he’s hard-working and competent.

Given this weekend’s events, I plan to collect extra data this evening to see how things have shifted. Check back in tomorrow, and don’t forget to listen to the first Ontario-ified Curse of Politics! Happy Sunday!