This could be even more of a blowout than it seems

Alright Ontario, we’re on day 12, 17 more days to go. Clearly this is going to be a campaign that takes me on an emotional rollercoaster for absolutely no reason. Movement in vote intention has stayed within the margin of error. The PCs have been bopping around 50% throughout the campaign. The OLP has been between 22% and 25%, and the NDP at 16-19%. This is as stagnant of a race as we can have. 

This is obviously a devastating environment for both the OLP and NDP. But what will an uncompetitive race mean for voter turnout? In 2022, the polls right before Election Day hovered around 40% PC, 25% OLP, and 23% NDP. The resulting voter turnout was a historically low 43.5%. If a blowout is once again forecasted, will left-leaning voters bother to show up? 

Despite a strong appetite for change (67%), the most motivated voters are also the ones who are most likely to vote PC. The Liberals do comparably well among both extremely and very motivated voters, but the NDP does better among those who are less motivated. I guess that’s good news for the OLP’s pursuit of official opposition? Silver linings. 

Note that vote motivation is defined as:

• Extremely motivated (32% of voters) = those who will “definitely” vote, rate themselves a 10/10 on voter motivation, and know where to vote

• Very motivated (35% of voters) = those who will “definitely” vote but don’t rate themselves a 10/10 on voter motivation and may or may not know where to vote

• Moderately motivated (14% of voters) = those who will “probably” vote

• Not motivated (18% of voters) = those who only “maybe” plan to vote or say they will not