The Vote.

On a day like Monday, I couldn’t resist going into the field for a quick look at how public perception is evolving—or not. I’ll be dropping findings over the next couple of days. Here’s your first fix.

The vote is the same as it was one month ago. The Conservatives continue to have a massive lead—if an election were held today, 45% of Canadians would vote for their party, compared to 21% for the Liberals and 16% for the NDP. The Bloc is at 9%, and the PPC and Greens are each at 4%. 

Is this good news or bad news? While I wasn’t in the field at the time, Angus Reid had the Liberals at 16% at the end of December. So, if you’re a really hopeful Liberal, you might see this as a bump, but I don’t know for sure.

As an only modestly hopeful Liberal, I exhale reading these results. Obviously, I would like to see an immediate bump, but I’ll accept the lack of a slide. Additionally, our pool of voters who would consider voting for the Liberals has increased by 9 points. In the fall, 60% of Canadians said they were certain not to vote for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau. That number has shrunk to 51% now that voters are considering the Liberals led by someone other than Trudeau.

The Liberal Party has a lot of work ahead, but at least we seem to be building from a stable floor.

One more thing - this week’s Herle Burly is going to be an LPC leadership bonanza. David has interviewed a bunch of Liberals about different facets of the race, including yours truly. It’ll be out tomorrow, so be sure to check it out.