This is really bad.

The talk du jour is the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection. What is there to say that hasn’t already been said? This loss is really, really bad for the Liberal Party. Theoretically, it’s also bad news for Justin Trudeau. 

My newsletter energy this week will be directed at the upcoming Presidential debate (stay tuned!), but just a couple of points about the byelection:  

Trudeau's staying is flouting the data and basic logic. Even before the by-election, it was clear: the Liberals will almost certainly lose the next election with Justin Trudeau at the helm. They might lose with someone else. If they lose, it’ll likely be less bad with another party leader. 

If there’s anywhere that a Poilievre hater can be found, it should be in Toronto-St. Paul’s. As a reminder, Poilievre is polarizing. 1 in 4 voters have a very unfavourable view of him. But in this political dynamic, does it matter? If the Trudeau Liberals can’t weaponize Poilievre’s negative attributes in a safe urban seat, where do they think they’ll be able to do so? 

Lastly, I’ll re-up this data. I’ve seen some Twitter/X commentary that boils down to - who would want the leadership? Who wants to be the Liberals’ Kim Campbell? I don’t know if I buy the premise. There are reasonably strong prospects - or at least those bringing agenda and narrative re-setting potential. They should be given the chance.

Methodology 

This survey was conducted online in English and French from April 28-May 9, 2024. A nationally representative sample of n=1555 Canadians completed the survey. The data was weighted to census parameters for region, gender, age and past voting behaviour. For a representative sample, the margin of error would be +/-3%.