Ontario update and a look at the NDP

Alright, Ontario, we’ve made it a week! 22 more days to go. 

The provincial vote continues to be stable. Yawn. Ford sits at 50%, yada yada.

This morning’s Curse of Politics includes a discussion of what’s behind the NDP’s pretty pitiful numbers and why the Green Party is surprisingly strong. 

I have one theory: Sarah Jama. 

If you don’t follow Ontario politics closely, Jama is a former NDP Member of Provincial Parliament who was ousted from the party in October 2023 after calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an "end to all occupation of Palestinian land." 

I have to admit, before hopping onto the Google Trends machine last night, I would have assumed this was a fairly niche story. It wasn’t. As you can see, there is no moment in time where interest in Stiles has been higher than interest in Jama at her peak. It’s not even close. And even now, with an election underway, search for Stiles has not yet surpassed her Oct. 2023 peak. 

Now, Stiles’ handling of the Jama issue isn’t my main theory as to why the NDP is polling poorly. I think it’s mostly that people don’t know her (50% neutral impression of her or have never heard of her). But if this is the only thing voters have heard about her, I can see it suppressing her vote among people who are normally in the NDP’s corner. 

Teaser: I’m examining the very bouncy federal polls for tomorrow’s newsletter. Be sure to check back in—it’s juicy.