Lunchtime Brief: Ontario Day 5

Alright, Ontario. We’re on Day 5, 24 more to go. Today, we’re digging a little deeper into the vote. 

We’re currently looking at a sweep. The PCs are leading among both men and women, in every region, and among 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Generation Canadians. 

You know it’s bad, bad (if you’re a Liberal or New Democrat) when the Conservatives are leading in Toronto. But that’s what’s happening. Notably, the NDP is NOWHERE in the entire Greater Toronto Area. 

There are two groups of note: women aged 18-34 and 65+. The unweighted sample sizes for the gender x age splits range from n=123 to n=216, with a margin of error between 7% and 9%. This means we should look at the results directionally, and not as an exact figure. But, we see young women are much more in play, and 1 in 3 are undecided. The Liberals and PCs are tied among women 65+. This is a trend I’ve noticed in federal polling as well. I’ll be keeping a close eye on this dynamic throughout the campaign.

Check back in tomorrow for a rollup of my Sunday/Monday data. Teaser: I have a few questions on the Trump situation and am seeing some movement. 

And oh yeah! Don’t forget to tune into the daily Curse of Politics, featuring data from yours truly!