Is it time for Ford to think about resigning?

Alright, Ontario, we’re on day 22, 7 more to go. The race appears to have stabilized - Ford is at 47%, Crombie 27%, Stiles 18%, and Schreiner 8%.

As Doug Ford stares at an unimaginably large majority, I’m here to ask the only logical question: Is it time for him to think about resigning? Before you scoff, hear me out! 

As a good Saskatchewanian, Brad Wall is always on my mind. OK, not really, but his communication skills and political timing are deeply underappreciated in central Canada or, in keeping with my prairie cred, The East. Wall managed to do that one thing that seems to evade most politicians: know when it’s time to go. You might not have noticed it at the time, but in the months prior to Brad Wall’s resignation, his approval was cratering. He enjoyed years of 60%+ approval, only to drop 21 points in a little over a year. 

When I look at my Ontario data, I can see voters’ disaffection. 51% of Ontarians strongly agree that it’s time for a change, up 7 points throughout the course of the campaign. A further 20% somewhat agree. That’s 7 in 10 Ontarians who want change. But this dynamic doesn’t feel like the outward consensus, obviously, Doug Ford is sitting at 47%! 

Political toxicity is one of those things that happens gradually, then all at once. Doug Ford’s “gradual” is well underway. Is he 1 misstep away from everything changing? 2? The political clock doesn’t stop ticking. 

Let’s look ahead 18 months: The worst of the Trump chaos will be over (god willing), the Liberals will maybe be at official party status, the NDP is unlikely to be. Neither Crombie nor Stiles have seen much growth in popularity throughout the campaign. It’d kind of be the perfect time for the PCs to renew. 

Maybe I’m over-learning from watching Trudeau’s very ugly political downfall. But Ford seems like the kind of guy who loves to be loved. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he sees more politics in his future.

Tick tock.