Provincial update

Alright, Ontario, we’re on day 9, 20 more days to go. In yesterday’s newsletter, I teased that we might be seeing some movement in the polls.

Well, sike!  

We’re back to 49 PCs, 25 OLP, 17 NDP, 9 Green. 

I am seeing a bit of movement on the issues. Compared to our baseline, there has been a 5-point increase in the percentage of Ontarians selecting the OLP as the best to help people like you and handle the cost of living. They have received a 3-point bump on healthcare. Most of this movement has come from the PCs. 

At the beginning of the campaign, the NDP had an advantage over the OLP on every issue except dealing with Trump. The OLP and NDP are now tied on all of these issues. However, the PCs continue to lead overall.

Federal poll update

Yesterday, Ipsos put out some new numbers that show the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals at TWENTY EIGHT. Those are big boy numbers. In the online polls, we’re now seeing a gap that went from 23 points to 13. It’s a big deal, but still not the 3-point spread the IVR polls are showing. 

I’ll be back Sunday with a deeper dive into the Ontario race.