Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy

Ok, that was a longer break than I anticipated, but as you might understand, things are a bit hectic right now. But man, this is the good stuff! I can’t think of another example of public opinion turning on a dime like this. 

Being among the first to document historic events is part of why I love being a pollster. The other part is being able to say I TOLD YOU SO! I’m not referring to the horserace numbers – no one predicted that. I mean my assessment of what impressions of Poilievre, even when he was sky high in the polls, would mean down the road. I just didn’t know we’d be at our destination so soon! 

During my first appearance on the Herle Burly, I mentioned that evaluating political leaders is kind of like dating. In the early days, voters will discount a candidate’s flaws (or red flags) because they’re optimistic! Voters were desperate for a change from Trudeau, so they ignored things about Poilievre that didn’t quite sit right. Well, Canadians’ ex is gone, and they’ve found themselves asking, “Do I even like his replacement?” 

Until Trudeau’s resignation, I had been issuing periodic reminders that Poilievre was a polarizing figure – he was not as beloved as the horse race suggested! On balance, opinion of him is now more negative than positive but there has always been a sizable portion of Canadians who took issue with his style of leadership. 

When asked what they knew about Poilievre, critics of him pointed to 5 themes: 

1. He’s Canada’s Trump 

2. He’s extreme 

3. He’s a career politician 

4. He’s all talk 

5. He’s a jerk 

If we write my relationship analogy to death, the red flags at the beginning of the relationship are usually the cause of the breakup. In April, Poilievre’s negative attributes might not have mattered to the point of disqualifying him as Prime Minister. But today, while Donald Trump issues near-daily reminders that he would quite like to take over our country, this combination of attributes means something different. Poilievre seems less like someone with the experience, character, or vision to handle the problems of today. I won’t say he’s missed his moment, clearly not. I still think it’s the Conservatives’ election to lose. But he’s entering the campaign seriously diminished. 

Well, shucks. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. 

To set expectations – I won’t be writing about the (assumed) federal election at the same cadence as I wrote about the Ontario election. Or potentially any cadence. I’ll catch you when the dust has settled.

In both senses, go team red.