Last week, Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario Liberal Party put out a new ad. It’s a 1-2 punch, discussing Ontario’s worsening education, healthcare, and cost of living, Ford’s friends getting richer, and the Liberals’ plan to get back to basics so Ontarians can “get more.” Ok, maybe that’s more than 2 punches. 

I used my proprietary methodology, Text Snapshot, to see how 29 potential Liberals (those who typically consider voting Liberal but don’t always) react to the OLP ad, as well as an ad the Ford team put out in March. Text Snapshot is a novel approach to qualitative research in which participants are interviewed via text message. This allows for a quick and affordable read of the opinion landscape. Transcripts can be found here. 

Crombie represents the opportunity and threat of being unbranded. 

In July (admittedly a while ago), I asked more than 700 Ontarians what, if anything, they know about Bonnie Crombie. 6 in 10 weren’t able to mention a single thing. For those who could answer, the most common answers related to her being the former Mayor of Mississauga or that she is the Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. Few mentioned anything substantive - either positive or negative. 

The feedback I received in the Text Snapshot interviews echoed this response. When asked about their impression of Crombie, participants commonly mentioned that they don’t know much about her and that she still has a lot of work to do to make an impression:

Crombie’s ad is a good first look. 

The overall reaction to Crombie’s ad was good – not paradigm-shattering, knock your socks off amazing, but good. Without the baggage of pre-existing impressions, participants tended to be receptive to the ad's message. The problem diagnoses - healthcare, education, and the economy - resonate. Crombie also came across as genuine to many participants. 

Not uncommon for political ads, some participants mentioned that the ad was full of platitudes and did not provide enough detail regarding how she would make these changes: The ad speaks of the problems in a true way, but that's always like that with the Liberals they say the right things but don't always follow up.

Ford being for his “buddies” is a strong positioning. 

In my recent Herle Burly appearance, I discussed that election results and horserace numbers are not the best indicators of public opinion. We often read too much into a win and assume it means that voters are fans of the victor, as opposed to complex people with contradictory points of view. At the risk of sounding like a sore loser, Ford’s PCs have always overinterpreted their mandate (maybe with the exception of Ford’s Covid honeymoon). According to recent Abacus Data polling, the PCs are polling at 42% among committed voters, as compared to 26% for the Liberals, 22% for NDP, and 7% for the Greens. Clearly, it’s a massive lead, but his approval is 10 points lower at 33%, and 43% disapprove of his job as Premier. 

In my July poll, I found that Ontarians were more likely to describe Ford negatively than positively. One of the stand-out themes is that he’s corrupt. Respondents frequently mentioned that he’s in the pocket of big business, his buddies, and developers. 

It’s amusing to me that just 2% of respondents mentioned negative things about Ford’s temperament. In 2018, the most impactful thing we could say about Ford was that he is mean and a bully. And, as some may say, a bit of a dick. With an unpopular incumbent, it’s extremely difficult to get voters to care about anyone else’s flaws. It seems that Ford is far past that point. 

For the most part, participants felt the critiques of Ford in Crombie’s ad were true and valid. He was described as having the wrong priorities and only caring about his friends.

To those who came to his defense, they mentioned that he’s trying his best or that these things could be said of any politician. 

Reaction to Ford’s ad was more mixed with some feeling it was salesy and fake and others feeling like it did a good job of portraying Ford. 

It’s important to remember that overall, this is a more left-leaning audience than would be part of Ford’s target universe. To those who are especially critical of Ford, they felt the ad was fake. 

Some people also pointed out some hypocrisy in the messaging. They felt like Ford was a rich guy cosplaying as regular folk. 

Some participants took the ad at face value and thought it signaled good intentions. They said things like, “he’s trying to make a difference, “there are some truths to what he said, and “he sounds engaged with the people.”

But if an ad is dropped and no one sees it, is it really a message? From the conversations with participants, this seems like an ad that has the potential to lay some groundwork for Crombie. But it’s unclear to me whether any version of this ad has any money behind it. At least on Meta, the only ads being run right now are fundraising appeals. So maybe first things first?