I’ve been watching coverage of today’s events all morning, denying my mom her Christmas carols and effectively ruining her day, so I’ll make this short. But I want to first say a whole-hearted thank you for following my work this year! I could never have imagined such a positive response, and I feel very excited about what’s to come.  Barring one specific event, I’ll be newsletter-free until the New Year. Wishing you a happy holiday season! Now, let’s get to the bah humbuging. 

The shuffle

I don’t have any fresh data on the shuffle, but I’ve been thinking a lot about Trudeau’s 2013 leadership acceptance speech. In that speech, he said: 

I was in the room when he said this, and it was a banger. But 11 years later, it feels like Trudeau is stuck in this paradigm, while the party is back to its hyphenated status. We have anti-Trudeau Liberals (or at least anti-his leadership; I don’t think this is personal), mute-Liberals, and delusional-Liberals. To the latter, expecting this Cabinet shuffle to make any difference and/or diminish Canadians’ appetite for a change in leadership is insane. We’re being set up for a devastating defeat – as in 47 seats, devastating. The pressure on Trudeau to resign can’t cease over the holidays, even if that makes us turn the fight toward each other. 

Singh’s announcement 

Stepping away from the Liberal Party, Jagmeet Singh also finds himself in an impossible position. Somehow, the Liberals’ decline in the polls hasn’t come with any shift to the NDP. My polling in the fall found Canadians mostly rejected that the confidence and supply agreement was effective at achieving its aims, with the exception of making prescription drugs more affordable, where Canadians are evenly split. He didn’t really have any other choice but to cast that the NDP will vote down the government in the New Year, but I’m sure he’s asking Santa for a bit more time. Let’s hope he gets it.